What we know about US-Ukraine minerals deal

Ukraine and US Unable to Conclude Rare Earth Minerals Deal

On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump in Washington to sign an agreement granting the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits. However, the meeting took an unexpected turn, ending in a heated exchange between Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. Following Zelensky’s early departure, the White House announced that no agreement had been signed.

Zelensky had earlier conveyed hope that this «initial» agreement might lead to enhanced collaboration. Yet, he acknowledged that Ukraine still hadn’t obtained any security assurances from the US—a crucial point for him. Trump contended that the agreement could enable American taxpayers to «recover their funds» from the aid given to Ukraine during the conflict, but emphasized that Europe should assume the main role in ensuring Kyiv’s security.

What Conditions Are in the Agreement?

On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal declared that Kyiv and Washington had completed a draft of the agreement, which was made public on Friday morning. This agreement proposed the establishment of an «investment fund» to aid Ukraine’s rebuilding initiatives.

Shmyhal mentioned that the fund would be overseen «equally» by both countries. According to the agreement, Ukraine would contribute 50% of its prospective earnings from publicly owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The generated funds would be directed towards projects designed to bolster Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic development.

The US, in turn, pledged a long-term financial commitment to fostering a stable and prosperous Ukraine, subject to US law. The agreement also stipulated that the US would own the maximum share of the fund permitted under American regulations.

Disagreements Over Mineral Rights and Financial Terms

Tensions between Trump and Zelensky appear to have escalated over the specific terms of the minerals deal. Initially, the US sought a $500 billion claim on Ukraine’s mineral wealth, a demand that Zelensky rejected. Reports indicate that this request was later withdrawn.

Tymofiy Mylovanov, who previously served as a Ukrainian minister and now leads the Kyiv School of Economics, stated that Washington’s original proposal threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty and risked economic downfall. However, he observed that the US has adjusted its stance, presenting a fairer agreement centered on joint ownership, without making claims on past assistance. He believes this revised approach could eventually advantage Ukraine.

Trump has emphasized the financial aspect, stating on Tuesday that the US has provided between $300 billion and $350 billion in aid to Ukraine and that a minerals deal could help recover these funds. However, the Kiel Institute, a German think tank, estimates that actual US assistance amounts to $119 billion.

Are Security Assurances Part of the Agreement?

A central sticking point for Zelensky has been the inclusion of explicit security guarantees from the US. On Wednesday, he confirmed that no such guarantees had been secured.

«I wanted a clause on security guarantees for Ukraine because it is crucial,» Zelensky stated.

When questioned about possibly abandoning the agreement without security assurances, he replied: «I aim for a NATO pathway or something comparable. Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire, and nothing will operate.»

Despite the lack of direct security commitments, the agreement includes language indicating US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security guarantees to achieve lasting peace.

Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not complete the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus regarding security assurances and figured out how to incorporate them into the initial deal. On the other hand, Trump minimized the notion of direct US security guarantees, asserting that Europe should now assume those duties. He further mentioned that having American workers in Ukraine would provide «automatic security.»

Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to offer the US a concrete motivation to maintain its support for Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for granting mineral access, Ukraine would ensure the «right to keep fighting,» and that the US would continue providing military gear and ammunition «until an agreement with Russia is achieved.»

The US president has also claimed that Russia is open to allowing European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has dismissed this possibility.

When Is the Agreement Expected to Be Signed?

Trump initially mentioned that the agreement would be finalized at the White House meeting on Friday. Although Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal affirmed that a definitive version of the deal was ready, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, explained that only a framework agreement was intended for signing.

No agreement was signed, though. Instead, the meeting escalated into a clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. At one juncture, an irate Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for US aid and cautioned that he was «risking World War Three.»

«You need to finalize a deal, or we’re done,» Trump allegedly told Zelensky. «You lack leverage.»

Zelensky, in response, insisted that there could be «no compromises» with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Shortly after and earlier than planned, Zelensky departed from the White House. Subsequently, the White House declared that the agreement was not completed, with Trump personally calling off the signing event.

Trump later posted on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having «disrespected the US in its cherished Oval Office» and stating: «He can come back when he is ready for peace.»

At this point, it remains unclear whether or when the agreement will be signed.

Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth

Kyiv estimates that Ukraine’s reserves account for about 5% of the world’s «critical raw materials.» This comprises around 19 million metric tons of verified graphite reserves, positioning Ukraine as one of the top five global providers of this essential mineral for electric vehicle battery manufacturing.

Moreover, Ukraine boasts considerable deposits of titanium and lithium. The nation also asserts it possesses large reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals vital for military tech, wind turbines, and electronic devices—although the precise extent of these reserves is contested by some experts.

Complicating matters further, some of Ukraine’s mineral-rich territories are currently under Russian control. According to Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, mineral deposits worth an estimated $350 billion remain in Russian-occupied areas.

A further challenge to mineral extraction is the extensive presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that approximately 25% of Ukraine’s terrain is affected, especially in the conflict-ravaged eastern areas.

Time is another concern. Even if the agreement is completed, it might be years before the extraction and export of these resources produce measurable economic gains.

«These resources are not sitting in a warehouse waiting for shipment—they must be developed,» Mylovanov explained. «If the US invests, it could ultimately benefit all parties.»

What Has Been Russia’s Response?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet addressed the reported particulars of the US-Ukraine agreement. Nonetheless, on Monday, he informed Russian state television that Moscow is willing to «provide» mineral resources to American companies for cooperative ventures, including extraction in Russia’s «new territories»—alluding to the occupied regions of eastern Ukraine.

Putin dismissed the potential US-Ukraine deal as insignificant, stating that Russia «undoubtedly has, I want to emphasize, significantly more of these resources than Ukraine.»

«As for the new territories, we are ready to attract foreign partners to develop these regions, which have returned to the Russian Federation,» he added.

In the meantime, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated on Tuesday that the situation is still evolving: «We’ll see whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else. No official announcements have been made on this issue yet.»